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The current Middle East conflict and key shipping chokepoint closure reset the outlook: lower growth, higher inflation, and interest rates reversing the path expected earlier. The disruption was still seen as temporary, but prolonged conflict could block a pre-conflict recovery by Early-Q1 2027, with trade friction returning later this year. Higher fuel, materials, and logistics

Affordability had largely stabilized after several difficult years, but the typical US household still earned well below what was needed to comfortably buy a home. The gap narrowed because household income growth slightly outpaced housing costs, making purchase budgets somewhat easier to manage even as overall affordability remained strained. Housing costs took a smaller share

In Mid-Q2, US existing-home sales ↑~3% MoM, showing renewed buyer movement even as mortgage rates edged upward and consumers watched broader economic pressures. The national median home price reached $429.3K in Mid-Q2, with prices ↑~1% yearly as income gains outpaced home-price growth in most areas. An industry economist noted mortgage rates are ticking upward, but